Spirit of 1776   

Failure Analysis of 20th Century Economics

Black Hole Analogy - The Economic Text at the College Level

Logic dictates, if you accept the premise, you must accept the conclusion.

This observer does not accept the premises of 'modern economic theory' contained in the 'economic text book', therefore, it does not accept either the arguments or the conclusions of the 'economic text book'.

There are few things, if any, that exercise the mind - the intellect - more than search for answers to questions that arise and are posed by and from exploration of the vastness of the universe (by astronomers and the national space program).

Both do a superb service for all of mankind as they journal their observations and relate results of their new findings. The existence of 'Black Holes' by astronomers is one of those new or recent findings.

Astronomers report that the gravity of 'black holes' is so great, or intense, that even light can't escape. They explain - because of their darkness - the objects called 'black holes' can't be seen.

Evidence of the existence of 'black holes' comes from observation of the movement or behavior of matter or objects in close physical proximity to them.

The great intensity of their gravity 'sucks' or 'draws in' all matter or objects in close poximity to them, wherein even the radiated energy that occupies the visible spectrum of all radiated energy, called 'light', is captured and suppressed - hence, the term, 'black hole'.

'Black holes' and activity in and around them is a useful and accurate description of the content of the 'economics text' at the college level - where generous amounts of 'fact' or 'truth' and 'common sense' are presented.

However, all 'fact' or 'truth' and 'common sense' presented in the 'economics text' is polluted, exacerbated, and biased, by a collection of analytical models that serve only to fragment truth and common sense. (A similar view by Samuel Clemens (a.k.a. Mark Twain, author of 'Tom Sawyer' and 'Huckleberry Finn'), prompted his remark that, "economics is common sense made difficult".)

Various analytical models are used to explain relations and interactions of demand and supply, money supply, interest rates, prices, wages, employment or un-employment.

Gravity from these analytical models, and the relationships they try to explain, only work to suppress the light of truth or fact - perhaps not suppress, but moreso, to confuse, confound or bias understanding of the facts dealing with re-circulation of money - what 'money' is, and how it moves within the national household 'from' and 'to' its source of supply.

Texts that teach principles of accounting, emphasizing the difference between cost and value, and exercising the rigorous procedures of the accounting discipline, do a much better and more thorough job of educating the student.

Those who continue to become 'economists', only screw-up the numbers, so badly that those who go on to become 'Certified Public Accountants' are forever gainfully employed to sort them out - and never finish.


MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICY - ABSURDITY OF VARIABLES WITHOUT CONSTANTS

What is your 'propensity to consume' ? [Your inclination to spend your income to live (as if you had a choice in the matter) and, if you have any income left over, use it to relax and have a good time (like, smoke cigarettes, drink a few beers, play golf, gamble, or go on a travel visit.]

NOTE: When a business structure has any money left after paying all of its bills, the left over amount is alternately called 'profit' or 'capital gains' or 'retained earnings'.

When an individual has any money left after paying all of his or her bills, the left over amount is called 'disposable income'. Why change definition of terms that mean the same thing to individuals as they do to business structures ?
END OF NOTE


'Propensity', means inclination, and is only one of the many and favorite of useless terms of the 'economist'.
What is your 'propensity to save' ? (Your inclination to store some of your earnings, to carry you when the infirmity of sickness or old age prevent you from working for a living to earn your keep.)

How does monetary and fiscal policy affect your 'propensity' to consume or to save ? (How does inflation, the changing cost of borrowed money and taxes effect your income, and how much of your income must you spend to have a roof over your head, food in your stomach, clothes on your back and shoes on your feet ?)

What is monetary policy ? (Private Banking Authority execution of control over amount of money available for lending, down payment requirement for stock purchases, and the cost of borrowed money.)

What is fiscal policy ? (Government authority, at all levels of government, to tax the air you breathe.)


Elsewhere in this website, this thesis asserts all equations are useless if all elements or terms of such equations are variables.

More than twenty years ago, a certain Dean of Business Administration, at a local university, dismissed that assertion by saying, "We solve for variables all the time using 'simultaneous equations'."

(Following is my interpretation of his dismissal, in my words, not his):

He said, in effect,

that - stability or balance of and between wages and prices, or between incomes and the cost of living, are not important.

He said, in effect,

that - between the private and independent Constitutional authority of the 'Fed' to execute monetary policy through control of the money supply and interest rates, and the independent Constitutional authority of the Congress to execute fiscal policy through taxes on incomes and products,

that - whatever instability or unbalance that occurs as a result of independent execution of monetary and fiscal policy by these separate institutional entities,

that - the destructive instability or unbalance caused by one or the other, will be taken care of by the separate execution of policy by one or the other, to compensate for the destructive effects caused by one or the other, and vice-versa - and on, and on, and on, ad infinitum (to infinity), ad nauseum (until you vomit).


One respondent, otherwise complimentary, challenged money supply numbers in this thesis as a mis-representation, because the 'Exchange Equation', [MV = PQ], (FOR EXAMPLE) says that money supply numbers are 'different' because of the 'multiplier' effect.

I respond to all the world by charging that the 'Exchange Equation', and any money supply number derived by using it, to be 'pure or un-adulterated bullshit', because all the terms of that equation are unstable variables under separate stop-and-go variable control by the Private Banking Authority with one hand, and by all the pimps in the Congress (the U.S Houses of Representatives and Senators) with the other hand.


NOTE:
According to 'economic texts', the 'Exchange Equation', and the telling relationship of the terms in this equation, is used by 'economists' to argue and critique for or against the opposing forces of 'monetary' and 'fiscal' policy - wherein the execution of monetary policy to compensate for the destructive effects of fiscal policy, effects, bears on, burdens, and otherwise perturbates the financial condition or position of every business structure, every family, and every individual of the total national population headcount of the 'national household'.
In any final analysis or critique of all college level texts on 'economics' as a subject, the conclusion here is, that all such texts are written around and in response to the Federal Reserve Banking Act of 1913 (including all of its amendments, a 'bullshit' document in and of itself) - whereas, this complicated Act of Congress is the invisible constitution of government of the United States - invisible to the greater majority of the population of the United States, especially to the common man who has no choice but to work for wages to stay alive.

And, when he finds he can't make enough in wages to stay alive, or to improve the circumstances and conditions of his survival by working for wages for a living, he will (out of frustration) have a 'propensity' to cheat, to rob, to steal, and even to kill, just for the hell of it. (Or try to escape reality through alcohol or drugs.) This does not justify immorality or violence, but goes a long way to explain reason for prevalence of this grim consequence.
END NOTE


THE EXCHANGE EQUATION: MV = PQ

If 'PQ' is defined as Net National Product (NNP) (a measure in $dollars), and 'MV' is equal to 'PQ', then 'MP' is also a measure of Net National Product in $dollars.

Then, what this equation says is, 'Net National Product' is equal to 'Net National Product'. What this equation says is, the cost or price of an egg is equal to the cost or price of an egg.

That profound conclusion staggers the imagination.


Position of this thesis in response to each term of this 'Exchange Equation' is contained within the Parens [ ] after the text definition of each term.
Left side of the equation is 'Net National Product', M times V, where:

M = Supply of money.

[This is an accounting ledger entry of units of money (or currency). I use M3 as defined by the Fed. That number keeps increasing faster than the total national population headcount number.]

V = Velocity. The number of times per year that the average dollar is spent on final goods and services.

[Is 'V' a number that can be determined or calculated ?

By definition, 'V' for 'Velocity' on a daily basis is the sum of:

  • the number of times that cash changes hands
  • + the number of checks written by every individual, by every business structure and by every government agency in the nation
  • + the number of credit card transactions by every individual, and by every business structure in the nation
  • + the number of times each cash register rings a sale transaction
multiplied by the number of days each year.

'V', then, is a number in the billions, and increases in direct proportion to the increase of national population headcount, but not faster than 'debt' that is increased by injecting new money into circulation faster than growth of population headcount, added to 'debt' that is further increased by the compound interest rate formula applied to increase unpaid 'debt' at a rate that exceeds the amount of income faster than wages can be earned to pay the debt.]


Right side of the equation is 'Net National Product', P times Q, where:

P = Average price at which each unit of physical output is sold.

[Average price 'P' increases solely as a function or effect of increased 'M3' (accounting ledger entry of the total units of 'money' that is the total national money supply).]

Q = Physical volume of goods and services produced.

[ You can measure physical volume of goods (units of output), but you can't measure physical volume of services other than in terms of numbers of bodies involved in level of 'volunteer', 'servant' or 'slave' efforts - where 'volunteer', 'servant' or 'slave' efforts are those subservient to direct hands-on making or manufacture of product.]


All 'level of effort' constitutes the 'burden cost' of producing products essential to improvement of the circumstances and conditions of human life, and survival of the individual and the family.

As fewer products are produced by any nation, especially in the United States, the number of 'volunteers', 'servants' or 'slaves' increases.

The physical volume of goods or products produced within the continental limits of the U.S. is reduced to the level of third world countries. Total manufacturing employment in the United States is only 15-16 % of the total employment number.

What is the Q number or amount ? - after you subtract the net quantity of raw material and product (piece parts, sub-assemblies and assemblies) not manufactured within the continental limits of the U.S. ?

As a result of all these variables, what is the real meaning or significance of the 'Exchange Equation', or a 'multiplier effect' represented by the 'V' term ?

What is the relevance of this equation, whether or not the exchange value of the dollar keeps diminishing because of a deliberate increase in the accounting ledger entry of units of money, faster than the rate at which individuals are created ?

OR

What good are any of the analytical models in any of the economic text books, if the dimension of money - the ruler or yardstick for making the measurements - keeps changing dimension ?


The professional 'economists', and the academic professors who clone them, might respond by saying that the distortion of measurement caused by 'inflation' is compensated for by 'indexing' for inflation.

Why go to the trouble and taxpayer cost of constantly indexing for 'inflation' ?

Why not just fix dimension of the ruler or yardstick in the first place ?

Then we may know the true cost of the egg, and how its cost might change as a function or effect of the natural law of demand and supply, and know the 'economist' and his academe professor for just what they are - 'statisticans' who, by mis-guided analysis, influence mis-management of the national household. And, in so doing, function like the 'black holes' of space.


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